Dogecoin Price Set to Fall, Analysts Point to Only One Lifeline

Dogecoin (DOGE) has entered a weakening phase, dropping about 16% from its local peak of $0.4795 on November 23. As the original meme cryptocurrency struggles to reclaim crucial technical levels, some analysts unanimously believe that the stability or recovery of DOGE may entirely depend on an external factor: Bitcoin's trajectory. Dogecoin price is at risk of dropping sharply again Technical analysis shows that the previously respected uptrend line, established in mid-November, has now become a formidable barrier. After breaking this support line earlier in the week, the Dogecoin buying side has repeatedly attempted to push the price back above this line. However, none of these efforts have been successful. Cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA), who has closely monitored the DOGE/USD 1-day chart, notes that DOGE is currently 'being rejected to retest the trendline we've held for almost a month and is now right at the macro Fib level .786'—a technical area often associated with significant reversals and potential reversals.

In addition to the trendline, internal momentum indicators paint a challenging picture. Kevin emphasizes that the daily MACD for DOGE is showing "strong downward momentum", a technical signal indicating that the short to medium-term trend of the market may decrease unless the broader cryptocurrency environment changes. In his opinion, 'It can be said for sure that if there is no price increase action of BTC, the possibility of this action happening for DOGE in the short to medium term will be lower. However, the price increase action of BTC can save us.' He identifies the level of $0.32—the origin of the previous upward trend—as the main price reduction target. If DOGE cannot hold above that level, traders may target the range of $0.29 to $0.26 as the potential next stop. In another post on X, Kevin emphasized that the Dogecoin price is trapped between two important long-term Fibonacci levels. He described DOGE as currently "trading between macro gold pockets", at around $0.47 and the macro Fib level of 0.5 near $0.39. According to him, a definite breakout above or below these important levels could trigger what he calls the "waterfall effect" of "strong volatility".

He added, "My view is that DOGE cannot control itself and its fate is entirely in the hands of BTC at this time, so focusing too much on this asset is a waste of time. I don't see anything indicating the cycle has ended, so it will soon rise higher regardless of short-term noise. There's nothing else to do but sit back and wait if you're a long-term holder who got in early like me." However, there is at least one notable bright spot. Kevin mentioned that he is "tracking [a] hidden bullish divergence" on the daily chart of DOGE. Hidden bullish divergence occurs when price action continues to trend higher over a longer period of time, while momentum indicators—such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—tend to decline. This pattern sometimes signals that the underlying strength of the market is greater than it appears. According to analysts, currently, it is "quite textbook", although still in need of significant assistance from Bitcoin. Kevin commented "Still need BTC cooperation, so there is no guarantee". What about Bitcoin? Kevin pointed out that Bitcoin is currently "squeezing" between the support uptrend line and the macro pocket of gold—levels that stem from previous bull market highs to bearish market lows This tightening price action suggests an imminent solution: BTC is unlikely to remain compressed in this zone much longer. A decisive breakthrough, in any direction, seems imminent and could have far-reaching consequences. Kevin predicts that "This upward consolidation can't last much longer. We will soon see collapse in any direction." Please provide the text to be translated. In terms of liquidity, Kevin noticed significant liquidity increases for BTC, noting that the "accumulated liquidity" in the past 48 hours corresponds to the macro Fibonacci level of 1,703. He also mentioned observing data showing whales buying large call options for MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock. Such buy orders may reflect predictions of a price increase for BTC, considering the amount of silver Bitcoin stock held by the famous MicroStrategy. If these whales and liquidity indicators are accurate and BTC does indeed rise, DOGE may find the "lifeline" needed to stabilize and reverse the current downward trend.

At the time of reporting, DOGE was trading at $0.405.

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