After Powell's dovish remarks, the expectation for a rate cut in September continues to show a cooling trend.

Despite Federal Reserve Chair Powell hinting at a possible rate cut at last Friday's Jackson Hole conference, which initially sparked optimism in the cryptocurrency market, recent market expectations for a rate cut in September have significantly diminished.

According to the CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, in recent weeks, the market's probability of a rate cut in September has dropped from 92% at the beginning of August to as low as 75%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate has risen from 7.8% to as high as 25%. This change reflects ongoing market concerns about inflation and economic data.

Despite a pullback in interest rate cut expectations, market sentiment has not fully turned pessimistic. According to Santiment data, the discussion heat of keywords such as "Federal Reserve", "interest rates", and "rate cuts" on social media remains at historically high levels, indicating that investors still hold some expectations for a shift in monetary policy.

However, the rise in sentiment itself also hides risks. Historical experience indicates that when the market is overly optimistic, asset prices often approach a temporary peak. Another signal worth being cautious about is the nearly 70,000 BTC inflow to exchanges since the beginning of June, which typically suggests that investors may be preparing to sell their holdings to realize profits, further increasing the likelihood of a short-term market correction.

Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see state, awaiting clearer policy signals from the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Although expectations for interest rate cuts still dominate, the trend of decreasing probabilities indicates that investor sentiment is becoming more cautious.

In summary, in the context of increasing uncertainty, it is advisable for investors to remain vigilant and avoid over-relying on a single macro event for investment decisions. At the same time, it is crucial to closely monitor economic indicators such as inflation data and employment reports that may affect the direction of Federal Reserve policy.

Remember, the market is always changing. Only by calmly observing and steadily positioning can one navigate through cyclical fluctuations.

What do you think about the changes in the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September? Do you think BTC will experience significant fluctuations due to expectations of macroeconomic policies in the near future? Leave your views and trading strategies in the comments!

#美联储降息 # Macroeconomics #FOMC