Powell's Jackson Hole speech may hint at a rate cut in September

On August 22, at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium. Currently, the Fed is facing unprecedented political pressure from Trump, but mixed economic data may force Powell to take a compromise stance, leaving key issues unresolved.

On interest rate policy, some analysts expect a compromise may emerge. Powell may open the door for a rate cut in September to acknowledge the necessity of preventing further deterioration of weak job growth, but he will not make further commitments until policymakers are more certain that the rise in inflation is a temporary phenomenon. This stance may not satisfy Trump—who argues that rates should be significantly reduced to around 1%—or investors betting on multiple rate cuts this year, although market confidence in a September rate cut has already begun to waver.