The U.S. economy is at a critical moment, and the Fed's interest rate decision in September is highly anticipated. Currently, inflationary pressures have eased, while the unemployment rate is on the rise. In this situation, if the Fed chooses to keep the current interest rate unchanged, it may pose unnecessary obstacles to economic recovery and the job market.

The current Fed's policy interest rate remains in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, while the inflation rate has fallen to around 2.7%. This high real interest rate environment may suppress corporate investment willingness and residents' consumption capacity, further exacerbating pressure on the job market. It is worth noting that the inflation risks that the Fed is concerned about mainly stem from the supply side rather than overheating demand, and maintaining high interest rates may have a negative impact on employment rates.

More critically, if the Fed does not lower interest rates in September, it will break the market's widespread expectations and may trigger severe fluctuations in the financial markets. In this case, asset prices such as stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies could experience significant repricing, creating a potential negative cycle:

Maintaining high Intrerest Rate → Triggering panic selling in the market → Falling asset prices leading to credit tightening → Credit tightening affecting the real economy → Economic downturn exacerbating market panic

Once this negative cycle begins, it may be difficult to quickly reverse the situation even if the Fed decides to cut interest rates in October. Therefore, the interest rate decision in September is crucial for the direction of the U.S. economy, and the Fed needs to carefully weigh various factors to avoid potential economic ripple effects.