The chart shows the share of STH (<6m) in realized cap (orange line) and its 30-day change STH 30d Δ (blue line).

The blue curve represents the net migration of value toward young coins over the past 30 days. Growth indicates accelerating turnover and distribution from old holders to new ones, while decline indicates coin aging and strengthening of diamond hands.

Currently, the price is at ATH, STH share = 47%, and STH 30d Δ = 0, meaning there has been no notable flow between young and older cohorts over the month.

Spikes in Δ to 10+ percentage points coincided with local overheating and peaks (red markers), while drops to -10 and below occurred during capitulation phases and subsequent recovery (green markers).

Zero Δ at ATH represents an equilibrium regime, so the base case scenario is consolidation with neutral short-term pressure.