From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen an astonishing 706% from its low point of $15,443 in 2022 to its peak of $124,545 in August 2025. The short-term rise from April to August 2025 is 67%, increasing from $75,457 to $124,545.

However, compared to Ethereum (ETH), BTC's performance is slightly inferior. During the same period, ETH soared from a low of 1384 dollars to 4784 dollars, with a rise of up to 246%, far surpassing BTC.

From the perspective of wave theory, BTC has entered the fifth wave on the weekly level starting from September 2024. However, this rise exhibits characteristics of a terminal contracting triangle rather than a typical impulsive wave. This pattern usually indicates a potential short-term peak, so one should not be overly optimistic about BTC's trend over the next six months.

The future trend of BTC has various possibilities. $124,545 may already be the endpoint of this round of rise, or it may rise to the upper edge of the inclined triangle near $131,000-$133,000, or even break through the upper edge to create a new high. The specific trend will depend on the trading volume and fundamentals in the next one to two months. If these two factors can align properly, BTC is expected to challenge the $130,000 mark.

From the daily chart perspective, BTC experienced a major upward wave from $74,578 to $111,959 from April to May 2025. It then entered a 45-day flag consolidation. In July, it broke through the $120,000 level and rose to $123,300, but the increase was less than expected. From July 15 to August 11, it entered flag consolidation again. Although a bullish flag was formed, on August 12, it briefly broke through the previous high due to the upward momentum of ETH before quickly retracting, indicating the complexity and entanglement of the daily chart movements.

Overall, the future trend of BTC remains uncertain. Investors should closely monitor trading volume and changes in fundamentals, and manage risks appropriately.