As the September Federal Reserve meeting approaches, market expectations for interest rate cuts are becoming increasingly strong. However, whether these expectations align with economic reality is worth pondering.

The main tasks of the Federal Reserve are to maintain price stability and promote full employment, with an inflation target set at 2%. Currently, the latest reported inflation data shows that the CPI is at 2.7% and the core CPI is at 3.1%. Although these figures have decreased compared to last year, they are still above the Federal Reserve's target.

It is worth noting that the recent rise in the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin seems to suggest the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, if the Federal Reserve decides not to cut rates, the market is likely to experience a correction.

At the same time, the technology industry is also facing new challenges. Recent reports indicate that NVIDIA has agreed to hand over 15% of its revenue from China in exchange for export licenses for related products. This agreement may extend to other companies. Analyzing NVIDIA's recent financial reports reveals that, although revenue is increasing, the growth rate is slowing down. This trend, coupled with the new revenue-sharing policy, may further impact its future performance.

Not only Nvidia, but also several tech giants including Tesla are facing varying degrees of growth pressure. If this "profit-sharing" model is promoted in the United States, it may have a significant impact on corporate profits.

For a long time, the sustained prosperity of the U.S. stock market has been closely related to its unique system. The Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 provide listed companies with flexible profit distribution methods. Many companies choose to return value to shareholders through stock buybacks, a practice that can enhance earnings per share and provide support for stock prices.

However, in the current economic environment, how the Federal Reserve's decisions will balance inflationary pressures, employment goals, and market expectations remains a challenging question. Regardless of the outcome, this will be an economic moment worth closely watching.