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August 11 – 20, 2025
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As the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is set to be released tomorrow, the Crypto Assets market is experiencing slight Fluctuation, with investor sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic. The response in the US stock market and Bitcoin (BTC) market is similar, both showing slight oscillations, reflecting a certain risk-averse sentiment towards the upcoming CPI and retail data.
The broad CPI data for the past month is 2.7%, with market expectations at 2.8% and the Cleveland Fed predicting 2.72%. This data suggests that, barring unforeseen circumstances, this CPI may fall within the expected range or slightly below expectations, roughly between 2.7% and 2.8%.
In the current investment environment, the market focus has shifted from merely paying attention to the Federal Reserve's decisions to the policy game between the hawks and doves. The hawks tend to push for interest rate cuts as long as the data does not deviate excessively, while the doves may stick to the current rate level before inflation clearly declines.
If the CPI data performs well, it may lead to a generally positive market reaction. Even if the data is poor, it does not necessarily lead to market pessimism, as the market currently generally expects a potential interest rate cut in September. The outcome of this market against the Federal Reserve is still unknown, breaking the situation where the market has not been able to outperform since the interest rate hikes began in 2022.
From the Bitcoin market data, the turnover rate rose at the beginning of this week, which corresponds to the increase in Bitcoin prices over the weekend. Data shows that short-term investors are the main players in current trading, while early investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude, and even the Bitcoin price breaking through $120,000 has not triggered a massive exit.
Despite active trading, the chip movement at the main support levels is relatively minor, indicating that investors at these positions are gradually shifting to a long-term holding strategy. At the same time, new support areas are forming, and their stability needs to be further observed.
Overall, the crypto market has shown a certain level of resilience on the eve of key economic data releases, with investors maintaining vigilance while also holding a relatively optimistic outlook on the market.