Bitcoin Breaks $110,000: Is It Too Late to Get on Board?

The price of Bitcoin has recently broken through the $110,000 mark, sparking heated discussions in the market once again. For those investors who missed the earlier opportunity to get on board, the question "Is it already too late?" is bound to arise. This article will explore whether there are still investment opportunities from the perspective of Bitcoin's investment logic.

Bitcoin's Asymmetric Investment Opportunities

Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, we can see that it has experienced multiple deep pullbacks:

• 2011: From 33 dollars to 2 dollars, a decrease of 94%
• From $1160 in 2013-2015 to $150, a decline of 86%
• 2017-2018: From nearly $20,000 to $3,200, a drop of 83%
• 2021-2022: Fell from $69,000 to $15,500, a decline of 77%

However, every time a "disaster" occurs, Bitcoin achieves an amazing rebound. There are three reasons for the emergence of this asymmetric opportunity:

1. Deep cycles and extreme emotions lead to price deviations.
2. Price fluctuations are severe, but the actual "death" probability is extremely low.
3. Intrinsic value exists but is often overlooked, causing "overselling"

The Value Investment Logic of Bitcoin

Although Bitcoin does not have traditional financial metrics, it also has an analyzable and modelable value system:

1. Supply side: Scarcity and programmatic deflation model ( stock-flow ratio )
2. Demand Side: Network Effects and Metcalfe's Law

Only by combining both supply and demand can a complete Bitcoin valuation framework be constructed.

The Essence of Value Investing

The core of value investing is not just "buying cheap", but finding structures with limited risk but significant potential returns in the gap between price and value. It emphasizes:

• Analyze the "margin of safety" to assess downside risks
• Study the "intrinsic value" to assess the possibility of mean reversion.
• Choose "patience hold", wait for asymmetric returns to materialize

This way of thinking applies to various assets, including Bitcoin.

Conclusion

The volatility of Bitcoin is not a risk, but an opportunity; its panic is not a threat, but a mispricing. True value investors do not shout in a bull market, but quietly position themselves during a storm.

Although it is difficult to perfectly time the bottom, one can buy misunderstood value at a reasonable price. The key is to learn to think in different dimensions and believe that the best bet is to stand on the side of time.